The German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy has released a report on the evolution of power usage. As a result, overall electricity consumption in 2030 is expected to be 658 terawatt-hours (TWh), an increase of 11% over 2018. According to a preliminary estimate presented by Federal Economics Minister Altmaier in July of this year, gross power consumption in 2030 will range between 645 and 665 TWh. Electromobility, in particular, is to blame for the rise in power use.
The latest estimate is based on continuing scenario simulations that consider current Climate Protection Act targets for 2030. According to the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the growth in power usage is mostly attributable to the transportation sector and the rising percentage of e-mobility, electric heat pumps in buildings and heating networks, electrolysis hydrogen generation, and battery manufacture. On the other hand, rising electricity efficiency and falling power plant's own consumption due to the phase-out of nuclear energy and coal are slowing the rise in electricity consumption.
According to the data, the transportation sector is the primary driver of the growth in consumption. Increased electromobility in road traffic, in particular, adds to the increase (+68 TWh). This includes around 44 TWh for automobiles, 7 TWh for light commercial vehicles, and 17 TWh for large commercial vehicles. When buses and two-wheelers are included, the total power usage for e-mobility in 2030 will be roughly 70 TWh (excluding rail transport).
According to the estimated scenario, battery-electric vehicles will reach 16 million by 2030, with an additional 2.2 million plug-in hybrids. There were only about 100,000 electric automobiles in 2018; the corresponding power usage was projected to be 0.3 TWh. The operation of battery factories, particularly for electric cars, produces new major industrial users, with an estimated power consumption of 15 TWh in 2030, compared to 0 TWh in 2018.
Rail travel, hydrogen electrolysis, heat pumps, and data centers are also major drivers of power usage in Germany (like in many other European nations). The predicted development will improve energy efficiency in the private and commercial sectors, a drop in power plant own consumption, and a decrease in electricity demand for another conversion, resulting in lower electricity consumption. The simulation assumes that net losses are constant at 4.5 percent of gross power consumption. As a result, network losses rise in direct proportion to the level of electrical demand.
"It has long been evident that more power would be needed when millions of electric vehicles enter the market and an increasing amount of green hydrogen is produced. Furthermore, as digitalization progresses, so will electricity use. As a result, the Federal Ministry of Economics is correct in raising its projections for future power use.," said Kerstin Andreae, Chairwoman of BDEW.
"The new Federal Climate Protection Act's CO2 reduction objectives have significantly raised the impetus to act. The BDEW anticipates an even higher power consumption of roughly 700 TWh, "Andreae goes on. "If the climate objectives are to be met, we believe that a more significant percentage of renewable energies in power generation of 70% by 2030 is required. And it makes a difference if we have to create 500 billion kWh of renewable power or 700 billion kWh. This means that the EEG's extension pathways will have to be raised: by 2030, this might entail roughly 100 GW for onshore wind turbines, 11 GW for biomass, and at least 150 GW for PV (roof and open space)."
The BDEW pushes for the elimination of restrictions to the expansion of wind energy on land and the creation of a photovoltaic boom. Because of rising power demand, faster network development and conversion are becoming increasingly important. This is the only way to ensure that green energy is always available where it is required. Billions of dollars in investment will be necessary, the organization stated. To maintain the existing degree of supply security, every potential for flexibility, such as load control and storage, would have to be utilized. The building of hydrogen-ready gas-fired power plants that are increasingly run with renewable and decarbonized gases is essential for secure performance. For this, the proper framework conditions must be established.
I'm not advocating nuclear power or suggesting that none of this is possible. All of this is feasible, but it will need a significant adjustment in energy policy. The current policy was to forsake nuclear power and restrict wind power expansion. You won't have to guess who the big winner is: Lignite-based power generation climbed by 35% in the first half of the year. This is disastrous. We will not be compensated for the loss of nuclear power-generating capability if the current strategy is pursued. @via greenbookmark.